Investment Ideas
CRWV
June 3rd, 2025 (Gain of 39.87% in 12 days)
147.21
Accumulate and hold position
CoreWeave
May 21st, 2025
Open Position at 105.33
Barrons March 17th, 2025 edition. Coreweave is financed in part by Nvidia.
Core business is cloud provider who rents out servers. It is considered a
pure AI play. Capital expenditure depreciation added 1.9 billion in revenue.
Up 737% from the prior year. Operating income rose to $324 million in 2024
from a loss of $14 million the year before. Risk into 2025 is that depreciation
costs will continue to rise as 2025s capex gets consumed. Revenue must
keep up. On 6/2/2025 Coreweave signed a 9 billion dollar deal with
Applied Digital.
ACHR
Archer Aviation
Open Position at 11.92
Archer is a leader in eVTOL, Electrical Vertical Take Off
and Landing for urban air mobility. The company's
dual-revenue approach, targeting high-margin
commercial air taxi routes and mission-critical
defense applications, positions it to scale rapidly into
a multibillion-dollar annual business within three to
five years. $6 billion market cap with a $6 billion order
backlog. Archer was selected as the Air Taxi vendor for
the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. Archer said it plans to
deliver its Midnight air taxi to the UAE this summer. It's working
with Abu Dhabi Aviation and Ethiopian Airlines, and has
just received design approval for a new vertiport in Abu
Dhabi. Archer and United Airlines are lining up a short-hop
air route from Manhattan to a nearby airport, a real test for
how its eVTOL aircraft can scale. There's also a new
partnership with Palantir Technologies to build AI tools for
flight planning and fleet management. That could open
up a whole new software angle for the business. Archer
ended Q1 with over a billion in cash.
June 3rd, 2025.
S&P500 has gained 9.00% post the Zweig Breadth Thrust
May 12th, 2025.
S&P500 has gained 6.55% post the Zweig Breadth Thrust
April 29th, 2025.
S&P500 has gained 5.16% post the Zweig Breadth Thrust
April 24th, 2025
Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered. Ultra rare
The indicator signals the start of a potential new bull market when it
moves from a level of below 40% (indicating an oversold market) to a
level above 61.5% within any 10-day period. This is a rarely occurring
sentiment, which carries tremendous import with market watchers.
There were zero thrusts during the 25-year span from 1984 to 2009
and as you can see below, after the 2009 thrust, S&P 500 returned
46.77% one year later
November 23rd, 2023 triggered
1 Week later - Up 1.31%
2 Weeks Later - Up 3.57%
3 Months Later - Up 13.67%
1 Year Later - Up 32.68%
March 18th, 2009 triggered
1 Week Later - Up 2.4%
2 Weeks Later - Up 2.1%
3 Months Later - Up 14.65%
1 Year Later - Up 46.77%
HYT
May 12th, 2025 (5.17% return on the stock)
HYT pays their dividend monthly as well. Next declaration
on May 15th, 2025
Yield = 9.76%
April 29th, 2025
HYT has been on the move, but most of the coupon rates are below 8%.
How is HYT paying out so much in dividends? Through the use of
derivatives. Probably high yield convertible bonds. A convertible bond
can be exchanged for common stock shares at maturity. Lets take a look
at two of their new largest holdings:
Cloud Software Group 2.3% of portfolio. Privately held. IPO in the future?
Hub International Limited, 2.11% of portfolio. Close to 52 week low.
(20 points below the 52 week high. Banking on a return?)
Certainly makes being in a bond group at Blackrock much more interesting
than dealing in pure bond purchases.
April 22nd, 2025
Blackrock High Yield Trust
9.28 per share entry point
Yield = 10.22%
Divident declared on the 15th and paid on the 1st monthly
ETF reached a low of 8.45 on 4/7/2025. 4/15/2025 to 4/21/2025 HYT
reached some stability.
1.3% invested in Venture Global Liquid Natural Gas Inc. w coupon rate 9%
1.3% invested in Mauser Pckng Solutions Holding Co. w coupon rate 7.875%
LLY
April 22nd, 2025
Eli Lilly
Open Position at 822.94
On 04/17/2024, LLY surged after the drugmaker said its
experimental pill worked as well as blockbuster drug
Ozempic to lower weight and blood sugar in a trial of
diabetes patients. Not having to take a shot of Ozempic
is a game changer and likely to lead to increased market
share from Novo Nordisk.
J
April 22nd, 2025
Jacob Solutions Inc
Open Position at 117.68
Jacobs had spun off it’s government business in September
of 2024, Jacobs has lost 17.68% over the previous six months
due to DOGE pressure but only gets 8% of revenue from the
US government as of now. On 4/16/2025, Jacobs (J) said that
the US Air Force Civil Engineer Center selected it for up to
$1.5 billion contract to provide global architecture and engineering
services to support environmental restoration, conservation,
planning, and environmental quality. Jacobs water business alone
has the potential for $200 billion in bids alone over the next five
years. Jacobs has secured a 10-year contract to operate and
maintain the water treatment system in Jackson, Mississippi,
for JXN Water. The contract, effective in January 2025, covers
operation and maintenance of the water treatment plant. This
follows a period of significant water challenges in Jackson,
including a major flooding incident and ongoing issues with
water quality
AAAU
1% gain
May 14th, 2025
Close Position at 31.47
Economic changes in tariffs, and investment in tech, defense by the
Saudi Arabians means more opportunities elsewhere
April 10th, 2025
AAAU (Goldman Sachs Physical Gold)
Open Position at 31.20
Big short dated and long dated call option buying on gold related instruments.
Call/put dex ratio is as high as 8.5 right now. Calls are extremely loaded on 295.
CVS
Loss 5%
April 10th, 2025
CVS
Open Position at 70.19
Medicare Advantage plans to get a 5% increase in 2026, versus the expected
4.3% increase expected. This translates to $25 billion for MA insurers in 2026.
After two years of Medicare Advantage cuts, this payment rate will provide
stability for millions of beneficiaries who have faced plan closures, higher
costs, and reduced benefits. Q4 2024 EPS was $1.30 per share, Earnings
Surprise of 28.5%. 2024 annual earnings of $3.60 per share, with 2025 full
year estimates of $5.90 per share. Earnings between 2022 and 2023,
where CVS increased earnings by 98.5% had the stock at 101 per share.
April 17th, 2025
(MATERIAL CHANGE). Exit position at 66.50. Arkansas law bans state
permits to PBM-owned pharmacies effective 2026. Yesterday,
Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed into law a groundbreaking
bill, H.B. 1150, to prohibit state permits to pharmacies owned by
pharmacy benefit managers effective Jan. 1, 2026. If Florida and other
Republican states follow suit, problematic for CVS.
META
(Facebook)
June 3rd, 2025 (22.3.% return in 51 days)
670.00 share price.
Hold position.
May 12th, 2025 (16.8% return in 32 days)
639.43 share price.
Accumulate and hold position.
April 10th, 2025
META
Open Position at 547.80
There is a trade rule, known as the de minimis exemption, which
currently applies to goods worth less than $800. Such goods
are allowed to enter the United States tariff free. Trump's order,
which takes effect on May 2, 2025 removes the exemption from
packages from China, the largest source of de minimis
shipments, and Hong Kong. Shein, Temu are examples of
Chinese companies who will be greatly affected by removing
the examption. A $50 USD skirt you bought from Shein, is now
$100 USD as of June 2025. Digital ad spend on META is at risk
from pullbacks by Shein, Temu, etc. Part of the reason for the
200 point drop in META from the high on 2/14/25. Piper
Sandler, Oppenheimer, Argus, Baird and Keybank have all
lowed price targets on META. In Q4 2024 results, META
posted EPS of $8.02, sales rose 21% driven by strong
advertising demand and improved pricing. Operating
margin expanded to 48%, up from the 41% margin a
year ago. Opportunity to dollar cost average into META
given growth, with an understanding of the potential risks
to META.
McKesson
June 3rd, 2025 (6.86.% return)
716.00 share price.
Hold position.
April 9th, 2025
MCK
Open Position at 670.74
Reasoning: 1/3 Pharmaceutical Distributors. Truveta Research
study shows 1,162M patients were prescribed a GLP-1 RA
between January 2018 and June 2024, with 4.81M total
prescriptions during this period. McKesson using a M&A
strategy to expand distribution and add technology
capability. McKesson also divested under-performing
European distribution operations. MCK delivered strong
results in fiscal 3Q25, driven by higher prescription
volumes, including demand for GLP-1 weight loss
drugs and oncology and specialty medications.
Adjusted EPS came to $8.03, beating the consensus
estimate by $0.02 and increasing 4%. GAAP net
income was $879 million or $6.95 per share,
compared to $589 million or $4.42 per share a
year ago. Revenue from distribution of GLP-1
medications (Semaglutide, Tirzepatide, Liraglutide,
Dulaglutide) was $10.9 billion, increasing 45%.
Semaglutide, also known as Ozempic is
manufactured by Novo Nordisk a Danish
Pharmaceutical, is the top selling GLP-1 drug at this
time. MCK 3 year return is 104%.
Amazon
June 3rd, 2025 (20.68% return)
207.51
Accumulate and maintain shares
May 12th, 2025 (20.9% return in 60 days)
208.64
Accumulate and maintain shares
March 17th 2025
AMZN
Open Position at 194.71
April 16th, 2025
Double position at 172.00
RobinHood
May 12th, 2025 (77.35% return in 81 days)
72.46
Accumulate and maintain shares
May 12th, 2025 (40.75% return in less than 60 days)
57.43
Accumulate and maintain shares
March 18th, 2025
RobinHood (Hood)]
Open Position at 40.8
Mr. Cooper Group
(17% Gain)
March 27th, 2025
COOP
107.00 Entry Price
Reasoning: Mr. Cooper group is a leading home
loan service provider in the U.S. with nearly seven
million customers. Purchase with anticipation of
two rate cuts in 2025.
Material Change: Rocket Companies (RKT) has entered into
a deal to purchase Mr. Cooper Group at a deal valued at
$9.4 billion. Because of this acquisition, I've unloaded my
stake after the jump @ $125 a share.
QUANEX
(23% Loss)
Nov 7th 2024,
Quanex (NX)
30.44 Entry Price
Reasoning: Credit to Value Line Special Situations.
Fenestration industry (Focus on Windows and Doors).
North American Cabinets division acquired in 2015
for $246 million continues to be a drag on profits.
Cost savings opportunity for Quanex as OEM Kitchen
and Bath door products are serial loss makers. In
August of 2024, Quanex completed the acquisition
of Tyman. Business lines for both companies are
complimentary, with possible manufacturing synergies.
Status - December 11th, 2024 – 31.35 Share Price
The consensus estimate for Q4 2024 revenue
is $490.96 million, and the earnings are
expected to come in at $0.55 per share.
Material Change – December 12th revenue was $492
million. Earnings were a loss of (.30) per share
Status – December 19th, 2024, 23 per share. (Sell)
AppLovin
(Gain 582%)
June 15th 2024
Applovin (APP)
76.54 Entry Price
Reasoning: Credit to Dow Theory Forecast newsletter which
can be read for free at San Francisco Public Library. Dow
Theory assigns App a reranked quadrix score of 98 and is
a focus list buy. Dow Theory Forecasts uses a proprietary
quant system called Quadrix to rank stocks, assigning them
scores from 0 to 100 based on over 100 variables that
predict stock prices, with higher scores indicating better
performance
Updates:
August 15th, 2024, 86 Per share
November 6th 2024, 175 Per Share (Huge Earnings Beat)
December 6th, 2024, 382 Per Share
December 11th, 2024, 327 stop loss activated.
January 21st, 2025, 354 Per Share Entry
February 18th, 2025, 519 stop loss activated.
March 10th 2025
Applovin (APP)
240 Entry Price
Reasoning: Feb 13th 2025, reached a high of 525. 1 year
return of 389%. 3 year return of 518%. Q4 of 2024, APP
captured meaningful holiday shopping ad dollars for
the 1st time. Adjusted EBITDA margins of 61.8% in Q4
24, with Advertising adjusted EBITDA margins of 77.7%.
Forecasts call for an adjusted EBITDA margin of 71% in
2025 and 78% in 2026 with margins increasing after the
divestiture of the APPS business. EPS in 2023 was $1.92.
EPS in 2026 projected at $8.51
Updates:
March 17th, 309.49 per share.
NVIDIA
22% gain initial investment
10% loss on next investment
10% gain next investment
135% gain on Call Contract
14% gain next investment
10% gain next investment
216% gain on Nvidia since initial investment (330 to 1045)
February 22nd, 2023, Non GAAP EPS estimate of .327 per share
Non GAAP actual .33 per share (+ 2.14% beat)
Revenue 27 billion
Cash Flow = .24
March 30th, 2023, buy
330 per share
May 25th, 2023, buy
382 per share
June 20th, 2023, Sell Half position
439 per share
June 26th, Sell remaining half position
405 per share
July 14th, 2023, buy
473 per share
July 14th, 2023, buy
460 per share
8/102023, sell entire position
424 per share
8/16/2023, buy
441 per share
8/24/2023, sell entire position
484 per share
2/19/2024
Buy
NVDA 05/31/2024 850.00 C CALL NVIDIA CORP $850 EXP 05/31/24
1 Contract
$32.95
-$3,295.00
February 21st, 2024 Non GAAP EPS estimate of 1.241 per share
Non GAAP actual 1.30 per share (+ 4.43% beat)
288% increase from previous year
Revenue 60.9 billion
125.9% increase from previous year
Cash Flow = 1.25
431.6% increase from previous year
04/26/2024
Sell to Close
NVDA 05/31/2024 850.00 C CALL NVIDIA CORP $850 EXP 05/31/24
1 Contract
$77.75
$7,774.00
04/19/2024
Buy to Open
762 per share
04/26/2024 Sell
868 per share
05/22/2024 , Buy
949 per share
05/23/2024, Sell
1045 per share
February 26th, 2025 Non GAAP EPS estimate of 2.948 per share
Non GAAP actual 2.99 per share (+ 1.42% beat)
130.7% increase from previous year
Revenue 130.5. billion
114.2% increase from previous year
Cash Flow = 3.01
140.40% increase from previous year
ELI LILLY
(208% Gain)
June 6th 2022,
Eli Lilly (LLY)
310.64 Entry Price
Reasoning: Credit to Dow Theory Forecast for information related
to two new drugs in development at Eli Lilly. One for Alzheimers,
and one for weight loss/diabetes. On June 4th 2022 in New
England Journal of Medicine, Tirzepatide , in a 72-week trial in
participants with obesity, 5 mg, 10 mg, or 15 mg of tirzepatide
once weekly provided substantial and sustained reductions in
body weight.
Status - June 10th 2022, 299.33 Per Share. (No Panic, healthy
action on volume)
Status - November 15th 2022, 356 Per Share.
Status - January 25th 2023, 349.78 Per Share (Pick up more shares)
Material Change - In 2023, researchers at Eli Lilly published in JAMA
the results of a phase 3 clinical trial called TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2. The
results showed donanemab slowed the rates of cognitive and
functional decline in participants who have early symptoms of
Alzheimer's. Treatment with donanemab reduced amyloid plaque
on average by 84% at 18 months, compared with a 1% decrease for
participants on placebo.
Status - August 3rd, 2023, 457 per share. (Pick up more shares)
Status - January 17th 2024, 639 per share
Status - April 4th, 2024, 781 per share (Pick up more shares)
Material Change - Donanemab, a monoclonal antibody treatment
for early Alzheimer's disease, received approval from the U.S.
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on July 2, 2024
Status - July 16th, 2024 956 per share. (Unload 75% of position)
